daily weather during 2007

I did this last year and have decided to make it a tradition. Here are some charts that show the daily weather in Maryborough, which is the nearest station to Amherst.

First up, here's a graph showing the maximum & minimum temperatures reached each day, in celsius:


(Click graph to see it full-size).

The pattern was similar to 2006, so no surprises. The hottest it got was 41 on New Year's Eve ie: yesterday. :-) The coldest was -1.9 on the 22nd July.

Next, let's look at rain. Here's the cumulative rainfall, plotted daily:



It looked like it was going to be another low rainfall year and then miraculously there were some huge rainfalls in late Spring and early Summer. As one of the best presents ever, the day with the maximum rainfall (50mm!) was Christmas Day!

To put this into perspective, here's a chart comparing the monthly rainfalls in 2006 and 2007 versus the historical average:


2007 turned out to be a bumper year for rain, with 590.1mm for the year - higher even than the long term average (527mm). The contrast to 2006 is vivid. In 2007 we got nearly double the amount of rain. Fingers crossed that 2008 is similarly as good. :-)

Understanding impact of El Nino

It's often mentioned that 'El Nino' is what causes droughts in Australia and that it's because we're in an El Nino year that it's been so dry. So I thought I'd find out a bit more about El Nino and see if I could find a connection between El Nino and the Maryborough historical rainfall.

Here's what I learned (I wish I'd paid more attention in school now!)

For Australia, the key El Nino metric is the SOI = Southern Oscillation Index. As the bureau of meteorology says:

"The SOI is calculated using the pressure difference between
Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI gives an indication of the stage of
El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The accuracy of
the SOI in determining the three-month outlook for rain around
Australia is highest between midwinter and midsummer in eastern
Australia. A strongly negative SOI (below -10) is characteristic
of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall
over eastern Australia... A strongly positive SOI (above +10) is
characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above
average rainfall over parts of eastern Australia..."

Weatherzone's site expands on this a little:

"A strongly and consistently positive SOI pattern (e.g.
consistently above about +6 over a two month period) is
related to a high probability of above the long-term average
(median) rainfall for many areas of Australia, especially
areas of eastern Australia... Conversely, a 'deep' and
consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6
over a two month period, with little change over that period)
is related to a high probability of below median rainfall ...
However, it is important to remember that the pattern of
relationship between SOI and rainfall can vary depending on
the particular season and region. Additionally, the change
in SOI over a specified period can be as important in
understanding relationships between SOI and rainfall as is
the absolute value in SOI".

Finally, some more from the bureau of meteorology:

"El Nino events occur about every four to seven years
and typically last for around 12 to 18 months... Each
El Niño event is unique in terms in terms of its strength
(as measured by numbers such as the Southern Oscillation
Index or changes in ocean temperature), as well as its
impact in terms of altered rainfall patterns... For example,
the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events were both very strong as
measured by changes in the Pacific, yet their impacts in
Australia were completely different. Eastern and southern
Australia was gripped by severe drought in 1982/83, but
in 1997 average to above average falls were common in May,
and a dry spell over winter was broken by widespread and
heavy rains in September. Severe drought can sometimes
result from a relatively weak event, as occurred in 2002/03.
Furthermore, changes in the Indian Ocean can enhance the
general tendency for reduced rainfall in eastern Australia,
or mask it by contributing to timely falls".


OK. What I take from this is that the SOI is only one factor to consider so not a fully reliable indicator... but useful to some extent given we're in Eastern Australia.

So I decided to try and see if I could spot any correlation between monthly rainfall and monthly SOI for Maryborough.

Here's a graph showing the monthly SOI's. (Click on it if you want to enlarge). The data came from here.



A rough scan of this suggests that the most pronounced periods of El Nino and La Nina were as follows. The years in bold are those where the effect was possibly particularly strong, because there was such a prolonged and high spiked period:

El Nino (relating to dryer times):

• 1878
• 1881-1882
• 1885
• 1888
• 1896-1897
• 1905
• 1911-1912
• 1914-1915
• 1919
• 1923
• 1925-1926
• 1934
• 1940-1941
• 1953
• 1957-1958
• 1961
• 1965-1966
• 1969
• 1972
• 1977
• 1982
• 1987
• 1991-1994
• 1997
• 2002
• 2005

La Nina (relating to wetter times):

• 1879-1880
• 1886
• 1889-1890
• 1892-1893
• 1898
• 1903-1904
• 1906
• 1908
• 1910
• 1916-1917
• 1921
• 1924
• 1928
• 1931
• 1938-1939
• 1942-1943
• 1945
• 1950
• 1954-1956
• 1960
• 1962
• 1964
• 1968
• 1971
• 1973-1975
• 1981
• 1988-89
• 1996
• 1999-2000

Here's what it looks like plotting each of those years against the historical Maryborough rainfall.

El Nino:


La Nina:


Overall, there's some correlation but it's not perfect. There are a few extreme anomalies that I don't understand, but maybe it's to do with the timing of the high SOI's (it's more pronounced in some seasons). Maybe for another iteration I can look at the seasonal factors in more detail, but I'm a bit el-nino'ed out for the moment! It's curious though.

historical monthly rainfall for Maryborough

The kind people at the bureau of meteorology in Australia have sent me even more historical data about Maryborough's weather... thank you thank you thank you. :-)

The most important variable for me is the rainfall. Here's a chart showing the rainfall for each year that they've kept records. Every bar represents a year, and is made up of the rainfall by month, in order from January at the bottom to Dec at the top. The shading represents the season: red = summer, orange = autumn, blue = winter, green = spring.



I'm still surprised about the amount of rainfall that falls in summer.

Overall, to be safe it seems we should count on getting around 400mm per year, which will be the case for 70-80% of years. Other years we'll get more which will offset against years where we get less. Even in the worst years, there's still some rainfall, around 250-300mm, and last year counted as one of them. (Ignore the year 1899, it wasn't really that low, but the data is missing for 6 months).

Historical Maryborough weather

After I did the 2006 weather post, I contacted the local bureau of meteorology to see if they had any historical information. A few days later I got a friendly email from Tim Forster, their Victorian information officer, who sent me some summary sheets with information about averages and weather extremes for Maryborough.

Here and here are the files he sent me, and below are some summary charts I put together using the information (although there's a lot more in the files than what I used). Thanks so much Tim. :-)

This first chart shows the average monthly rainfall per month for Maryborough. The lighter green bars are the average based on the 100+ years they've kept records for. The darker green bars are what happened in 2006. It vividly shows why there's a drought. Even though some months, like July, there was tons of rain, about a third more than the average, in every other month it was less. And for many months less than half the average. Wow. Depressing.



This second chart shows the temperature range. Average max/min temperatures per month, plus the extremes of each. Click to view the chart in detail and see the legend.

daily weather during 2006

I thought it might be good for future comparisons to make a note of the daily weather during 2006. Fortunately, the bureau of meteorology very helpfully publishes details of temperature, rainfall, etc for the past 12 months for Maryborough, which is about the nearest spot to Amherst, about 15 minutes drive away.

Using that data, here's a graph showing the daily temperature range, in celsius:



(In case it isn't obvious, the shading denotes the different seasons... blue = winter, yellow = summer, etc)

I was surprised, I'd thought it would have had more extremes... more 40 degree plus days and more days below zero. Although there's a clear pattern across the seasons it's not as pronounced as I'd thought. The hottest it got was 41.2 on December 10th, and the coldest -3.4 on 14th June.

Most importantly, here's a graph of the cumulative rainfall, in mm. As of end 2006 there was only 290mm of rainfall for the entire year! That is way below the long-term average of 550mm per year. This alone explains why the dam is so much lower than we've seen it before.

It's very cold at Amherst

From Mum's email:
"It has been below zero since 8pm on the 9th Aug at Lookout Hill, which is near Ballarat and Talbot, sort of. It is always colder than Ballarat. Below zero all day yesterday takes some beating ... At 1.30 pm today it reached a high of 0.7C"

We're very worried about the lemon gum trees - the ones we planted to line the driveway. We were told they were quite susceptible to frost when young so had been praying for mild winters; instead it's been the coldest winter for 50 years.

Update: We've since found out that the gum trees survived! The shelters that we built to protect them from kangaroos and the hot sun seem to have helped stop frost too. Especially the shadecloth on the top, I think. Apparently, only around 2-3 of the smallest trees were hit hard by the frost - these were a few months younger than the others as Dave's parents had planted them as replacements for ones which hadn't thrived from the first planting. But, even these appear to be making a comeback... so, fingers crossed, they'll all make it.

It's raining!

Mum sent me a few emails to say it's raining in Melbourne, she was so excited. Now, normally you wouldn't think rain would be cause for celebration but they're in the midst of a drought so... I remember a few years ago being up in Deniliquin (country town between Sydney & Melbourne) staying with friends on New Years Eve. Suddenly the skies opened and it bucketed down, a really heavy tropical rain. We were at the supermarket and everyone just ran outside, some people even just standing in it getting drenched with big smiles on their faces! It rained and rained but then unfortunately after a day it went back to hot weather again and the drought continued. If rain falls heavy & fast the soil is baked so hard it just runs off it... you need sustained periods of soft rain to make a big difference. Here's extracts from Mum's email from 23rd May:

"Tony (Dave's Dad) just rang - there is rain at Ballarat. I just checked the BoM site - indeed rain up that way and approaching here, though weakening. He too said the trees were doing well, olives too though not nearly as well as the gums. Fruit trees battling and some have given up. People have been ringing the radio on ABC up and saying "It is raining here" or "I just had to put the wipers on for the first time in a car we bought three months ago".. and so on. We certainly need rain - may it bucket down!"

...then half an hour later...

"It is raining at last! It has been sounding on the roof for about three minutes now. Not hard nor heavy, and from the look of the radar screen, not going to last for long, but it is absolutely fantastic while it lasts! Obviously we have not had rain for some time - and have been in a drought for about 4-5 years. And I can still hear it! Wonderful sound that it is.... "

weather map

Dave has become transfixed by this map. Every time I use the computer after him I find it's one of the windows open. It shows the rainfall patterns across Victoria live... Talbot and Amherst aren't marked but Avoca and Maryborough are and it's kind of inbetween them. Sadly it's not raining at the moment though. We need lots of rain to fill up the tanks inbetween waterings 128km Melbourne Radar

Toilet, frosts and Talbot market

Mum and Dad went up to Amherst this weekend. Here's Mum's account of the day. My favourite bit is where she extols the virtues of the composting toilet Dad made... I can see she loves it just as much as he does! The bad news is about the frosts of course, but who knows maybe we'll be lucky

Email from Mum - 15th Aug 2004

We went up yesterday and Dad dropped me at the Talbot market whilst he went and undid the car from trailer, unloaded car a bit at block and came back for me. I shopped for the usual leeks (missed out last time, big ones all sold) and unwaxed apples and this time a bunch = three of nice beetroots. Carrots and parsnips and even leeks used to be sold by bunches - this is the first time for ages I have seen it. Two flagons of grape juice - one black and one white - $7.50 each or two for $14. You can return the flagons. I looked for fruit trees but not many this time and I did not get any. Nothing much suitable, I thought.

Back to Amherst, and found the tanks installed (the second one was installed a week or so back by Dad and now is one third filled) and joined up, and the dunny building on a lean on the slope. I asked why not move it up to the old tank pad that he did not use - at least it was level. He agreed, had never thought of it himself! So it is a bit further away from house than he had it, but only by about 5yds. He had it about level with the tank you saw. The other tanks are downhill from that one, and actually look quite pleasing. So does the dunny.

That dunny has been built on the John Seymour principles, so that is one good thing to come out of that book you gave him. And the actual dunny has a story to tell. On the way up there, with it on the trailer, Dad said he had not had time to finish it at home so would finish it up there - by putting the roof on, and went on extolling the virtues of the thing. Then he said he hoped he had time to attach the door too - which cracked me up - I said so this fantastic dunny is really just three sides? - laughing like mad - he ended up laughing too, had never thought of it like that. But it is a very nice dunny, a shelf at back like in my loo - nice bench seat with a lid, and you have a hidden lid underneath to make the barrel used as the actual recepticle sealed from the inside of the loo so it does not smell. The sides of it were built out of two of those old fashioned doors - the wide sort - made of slats like floorboards and then nailed onto a frame of three horizontals and two diagonals making a sort of double z, sitting on top of each other. He put the shelf on the two middle cross pieces. And sadly, they are not at the same height, so the shelf has a delightful slope. It is obvious but does not mean it cannot be used and I think it is in keeping with the outdoor dunny. But Dad says he will fix it as it "lets the side down". The door he selected is also delightful - a six panelled door, the bottom two panels solid and the tope four flywire. I aksed why not solid, and he said ventilation and the view. The view I said fine, and no-one to see in, so OK, but imagine the ventilation at night when it is minus 10 like the local nurseryman said it gets to, windy and wet blowing straight in, and you have to get undressed to use it. Dad stared, said he had never bothered with that, but would look for some perspex to put in at least the next two panels up. Anyway he had to just rest the roof on and weight it down with four bluestone pitchers and then just nail the door on - it was dark by now. Faint glow in the sky to the south (over forest at back) showed where Ballarat was, and a much more spread out one down the long view along the vallyy we presume had to be Melbourne. Just light off the clouds we think but lovely. We had been going to go into Maryborough for a pub meal but it was well after 7pm when we left, so too late. We had not had the roast I wanted at Talbot as they only do Sunday lunch and nothing at night unless you are a guest at motel - and Dad said no time at lunchtime. Anyway they were almost totally booked out. So we got some takeaway in Ballarat again.....

Re the dunny, it needs a sort of veranda / pergola out the front which it will get, and a bit more overhang at the sides to protect it more. And as you are not meant to wee in this composting toilet, I suggest a lemon tree with a screen on a couple of sides next to it for the urinal. Women can squat if they will, no problem for men. Lemon trees thrive on urine. I think it will be lovely! and there is a very nice little window in the back wall above the shelf. It too is delightful. I will put a candlestick in there and cut some newspaper up for you to make it authentic. I suppose you will get nice soft loo paper too but try to hide it! And you need to put about half a can of sawdust on top when you finish. there is a pipe sticking up outside that goes up above the roof to take the smells away and you are supposed to plant things there to hide it. Maybe a passionfruit or choko if you want something useful, or jasmine or something if you want ornamental and perfumed.

The nurseryman who operates the nursey and old - hardly a museum - at the station in Talbot said olives would go well and I almost bought you 10 olive trees for $40 - small ones in about 5 inch pots. But will let you get them if you want them in October. He said the lemon gums you have will almost certainly not survive the fierce frosts - he has lost a lot finding that out. Says far worse than Ballarat where he used to operate from and thought there would be no difference - and the first year, lost so much stuff. He now experients with one of anything he is doubtful of, in his own experimental garden bed. I think he lives in the train carriage he has parked in the old carpark area - looked very nice! - well kept carriage of the Asutralian National Line - ie one from something like the Indian Pacific. Once of the trains with compartments opening off a corridor with loo and now kitchen at the end. Frosts down to minus 12 he says. If you can keep them warm for the first year or two, maybe the mature trees will stand it better he said but said he would be willing to bet $50 they will not make it.

so that is the down side of the weekend. However...

I did a little bit to help, getting the soil from where Dad had levelled the tank pads and putting it under and around the pipes connecting the tanks. It was above the gound so it 1. needed support and 2. needed protection from and for the sheep - so they did not deliberately break it, or accidentally trip over it and break their ankles. I ended up using hands to shove the last bits in and some of it got right under my thumbnail down deep. It is still quite sore - I have it now bandaged up with honey on it, and it does feel better.

Climate and rainfall

This is a link to climate information for Talbot, which is the nearest measuring station to our property. Unfortunately they seem to have stopped measuring it in 1920 but at least it's better than nothing! Based on this it appears the average rainfall is around 550mm. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_088104.shtml

The next closest place with information about climate is Maryborough, and this has been updated right through to 2003. Based on this it appears the average rainfall is around 530mm. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_088043.shtml Whichever you go with, the rainfall isn't much.

email minutiae: no rain

Water is a problem, most definitely. This from Mum a few days after she'd viewed it. Can't remember if I mentioned it in an earlier post or not, but there is of course no mains water supply to the property, nor any prospect of there ever being one

Mum's email warning about it being dry - 19th Jan 2004

Dad has talked to someone who lives at Maryborough. She says it is the dryest region in state and that is why people are selling out. She has (or friends??) a 2 acre dam (is that acre feet? - Dad may not have picked up on that, Dave will know no doubt) dam that is empty.

Also said soil so all pebbly etc. Which is what you already know of course. Dad said he said no stones as he was meaning bigger than your fist - and in that sense, there are no stones.

Just letting you know asap.. can't ring you from work.

Personally I think with sensible management and care you should be alright for water once we get good rains - even if they come only once every couple of years, if you catch lots and store it with little evaporation. Dad says you need height to gravity feed, do not bury tanks therefore or no pressure. Your hill above the house is not that huge - and if you need pumps for pressure then you will be putting an awful drain on solar power. If you are not OK for water eventually please do not hold me responsible!

Anyway I figure Dave knows well the sort of rainfall etc in the area.
Love Mum

My reply - 19th Jan 2004 - It's all off

Hi, thanks for letting me know. We're not going ahead with it, at least we don't think we are. It's a bit of a bizarre story... we decided after talking to you both and researching things like cost of solar power, rainfall etc to go for it, so called the agent late Saturday night for us, Sunday AM for him. He said great, that we'd got it, etc etc... then when we called back Sunday night our time, Monday morning for them he said sorry, no we hadn't, it turned out his partner had already sold the property on the Saturday but not told him! It does seem a bit ridiculous but then we knew it was priced to sell and there was a lot of interest.

Anyway, he's taken our solicitor details just in case there's been a mixup with the other person but I don't expect so. If only Molly hadn't been ill we would have been all sorted by then... I had at one point been worried about leaving it till the weekend to think about when more people could see it, but figured that they mightn't be able to move as fast as we were and besides we had to deal with Molly.

I'm taking it as an omen that the block isn't for us, even though Dave was and still is really keen about it. Having a look at some others; there is one at Heathcote (in the north so lots more convenient, around Seymour / Nagambie region) - 24 acres, undulating to hilly, 85k. But I will leave it to Dave to decide which if any are worth pursuing... we might just wait till something pops up that is so obviously with potential, like the one in Amherst. As Dave says, if we wait a while too perhaps the A$ will go down again, which automatically means we can buy more in A$ terms for the same in £. We'll see anyway. Thanks again for all your help with this.

Mum's reply - 19th Jan 2004

oh dear. That's a bit like me buying this place = a sort of silent auction!
undulating to hilly - wonder what they call hilly? cliffs?
I know someone who had a block of land in Heathcote, may still have it in fact - if you give me details maybe whe can give you some local knowledge. She had it as a sort of holiday retirement place.

My reply - 20th Jan 2004 - It's back on!

Well, the latest news as I guess you will have heard from your answering machine is that now we are going to be buying it after all! What a bizarre thing.

Apparently the other person missed their deadline to call in with more details. They were supposed to call by Monday lunchtime; they didn't so gave them till end of day and then when they still hadn't called they ditched them in favour of us. Which, despite the news about it being so dry up there, is still brilliant news especially as Dave was so disappointed not to have gotten it. For the price, I don't think we'd be able to find *30 acres* plus a house with potential anywhere else within easy reach of Melbourne which is so useable. I mean, you consider Heathcote which is fairly dry too, I've driven near it... they want a similar price for 6 acres less, without a house, and land that is hilly, rather than gently sloping like this one.

With regards to water... As Dave says, you can overcome the dryness provided you're willing to invest in making sure you have enough water and don't skimp on it. We have plenty of potential for capturing water from the forest run-off, so we just need to build another *big* dam or two and get some storage tanks in, erring on the side of having too much rather than not enough, which means we should be fine to survive during drought. It's not like we're going to be keeping loads of animals or having to keep the entire block green.

With regards to power, there is a pole only about 50 metres away from the house, in the neighbours yard. Wayne is getting a quote at the moment from the power company, but has had a verbal estimate already of circa A$12,000. Which puts it at about the same level as the minimum solar power system.

Love Lyn.

Mum's reply - 20th Jan 2004

That power pole is far more than 50 metres from your house position though. It is 50 metres to your gate. From there to house, 400 metres maybe??? Gate is far side of dam from the house. You can probably see it in one of the photos.

Must go listen to the answer machine now! I have to say I am glad you are getting it after all. I was a bit disappointed you weren't, after all that.

My reply - 20th Jan 2004

Well it is a moot point anyway since if it costs the same to go solar as it does to get connected to mains, solar would be the choice.

Yes, I was disappointed too, but I try really hard not to get my heart set on anything like this until it is 100% sorted. Even now am holding back a little because we have to get finance through... not that I can envisage any problem but still don't want to tempt fate. I told a few people at work about it though and everyone thought it was so exciting.